Some Reflection on the Upcoming Division of Sudan

Would secession really be all that great for the southerners in Sudan? Sure, the prospect of an independent state centered on what appear to be common values held uniquely by your side of the fence does sound like a fanciful idea but will reality support idealistic hopes for self-determination? While the south has become more and more dependent on oil exports for its revenue stream, northern Sudan has greatly diversified. Though still hunting for oil up north (and possibly having found quite a bit) - northern Sudan, with the help of entrepreneurial international powers, has become heavily invested in agriculture as well. The reality is that the oilfields will run dry at some point (within a decade by some forecasts) and the North has been quietly preparing for the very same. To put things in perspective, the South derives around 90% of its revenue from oil exports while the North merely 40%.

USAID 2001.

 Another important fact is that thus far, oil has been shared equally in Sudan between the North and the South. Though we might imagine some corruption, even with transparency left to be desired, a handful of Northern elite can't really get away with siphoning off too much of the profits making that matter negligible in the long run. What will really matter is the fact that though the profits had been shared 50-50, the oil producing blocks had primarily been in the South and at the border in the North. This leaves the North with vast untapped licensed blocks (in comparison) and a revenue stream that it thus far relied upon having consisted primarily of oil fields that don't/won't belong to it in the near future (if the referendum goes in the direction it's expected to by Western analysts).

Picture this: Your relative dies, leaving you and your brother with $100,000 where each year, you both are allowed to draw $10,000 from the total sum. Though the $100,000 had originally belonged to your grandfather as a whole, it was split up into different accounts, one account containing $70,000 and another containing $30,000. By dumb luck, the $70,000 was in an account where you were listed as sole beneficiary and the $30,000 where your brother was. Your brother and you quarrel and he threatens to walk away with his $30,000. After beating that snot nosed brat to a pulp, you two agree that the money drawn should be shared equally: $5000 for you each month and $5000 for him. However, the catch being that $6000 of this would be drawn from the account in your brother’s name and only $4000 from the account in your name.

This works for a while. Four years pass and though you both hold $20,000, $24,000 has been drawn from his account while only $16,000 has been drawn from yours. Your account currently stands at $54,000 while he only has $3000 left in his account. And while that dumb bastard was blowing all his money on hookers and blow, you actually invested yours (ironically in hookers and blow?) so that one day, when your relative's account runs dry, you wouldn't have to rely on it any longer. Now your brother's fed up with living with you and he wants to go his own way. He's willing to take his own account and let you have yours - all in the name of good ol' self-determination. You could react badly. You could beat his face in again, but what would your mom and dad say. You say alright, let him go his way, and pat yourself on the back for the fact that he didn't even bother to question the fairness of providence in that you started with more than he did.

What's more though is that the Greater Nile Oil Pipeline runs through the North and to a tanker terminal (also in the North which is not landlocked like her Southern neighbor to be) before which, refineries (in the North) need to be accessed. So, at least initially, the South will be in some way dependent on the North even for her own exports. And we needn't even imagine how negotiations for that would go. "Yea, so we kinda broke up - I know, I know, I dumped you by ballot box, didn't even bother to call. Sorry? But I uh, sorta, kinda need to borrow your car now and then to get to work - you know, at least till I get on my own feet, right?"

So sure, things will be peachy with a reworked cooperation agreement (if that happens) for the South in the short term. But how long will the joy ride last? When it's over, there'll be somebody to the North to be jealous of, a state that won't even have touched their prospective oil fields for the most part and have all of the infrastructure already in place to refine and transport as soon as they begin to tap it.

Update: Well, looks like it's official now. Good luck.

Update 2: It's getting hot. Is this a prelude to war?